Chapter 2 The Demographic Structure Of The Indian Society

Some Theories And Concepts In Demography

Demography is the systematic study of populations. The term originates from Greek words 'demos' (people) and 'graphein' (describe), meaning 'description of people'. It analyses population changes including size variations, birth, death, and migration patterns, and population structure (proportions of different sexes, age groups, etc.).

Demography includes formal demography, which is mainly quantitative, and social demography, which focuses on the social, economic, and political factors influencing populations.

All demographic studies rely on counting or enumeration processes, such as the census or surveys, which gather data systematically from people in a defined area.

Demography has been particularly important for the development of sociology. The rise of nation-states and modern statistics in Europe coincided, leading states to require systematic social statistics for functions like public health, policing, economy, and taxation. This provided quantitative data that justified the study of social phenomena, strengthening the basis for sociology.

Early modern censuses include the American census of 1790. In India, the British government conducted censuses from 1867-72, with regular censuses every ten years (decennial) starting in 1881. Independent India has continued this practice since 1951, conducting seven decennial censuses, the most recent being in 2011. The Indian census is currently the largest in the world.

Demographic data is vital for government policy planning and implementation, particularly for economic development and public welfare. Sociologists also use aggregate statistics (numerical data for large groups) to demonstrate the existence of social phenomena that require social-level explanations, as exemplified by Emile Durkheim's study linking suicide rates to social causes, even though individual suicides have personal reasons.

The Malthusian Theory Of Population Growth

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834), an English political economist, proposed one of the most well-known theories of demography in his 1798 essay. His theory was quite pessimistic, arguing that human populations tend to grow much faster than the means of subsistence, especially food production.

Malthus suggested that population increases geometrically (e.g., 2, 4, 8, 16, ...), while agricultural production increases only arithmetically (e.g., 2, 4, 6, 8, ...). This fundamental imbalance, where population growth outstrips resource growth, means that poverty is inevitable unless population growth is controlled.

He identified two types of checks on population growth:

• Preventive Checks: Voluntary actions to limit births, such as delaying marriage or practicing abstinence. Malthus believed humanity had limited ability to use these effectively.
• Positive Checks: Inevitable natural disasters like famines, diseases, and epidemics. Malthus saw these as nature's way of correcting the imbalance between population and food supply.

Malthus's theory was influential but also heavily criticised. Critics argued that economic growth could potentially exceed population growth. More significantly, historical experience in European countries refuted his predictions. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, birth rates declined, and control over diseases improved. Despite population growth, food production and living standards rose, contrary to Malthus's expectations.

Liberal and Marxist scholars also criticised Malthus for attributing poverty solely to population growth. They argued that poverty and starvation are primarily caused by the unequal distribution of economic resources, where a small privileged minority controls vast wealth while the majority lives in poverty.

The Theory Of Demographic Transition

Another key demographic theory is the demographic transition model, which links population growth patterns to overall economic development levels. It proposes that societies typically pass through three stages of population change:

1. Stage 1 (Underdeveloped Society): Characterised by low population growth because both the birth rate and the death rate are very high. The difference between the two rates (natural growth rate) is consequently small. This stage is typical of technologically backward societies with poor health and living conditions.
2. Stage 2 (Transitional Stage): Marked by very high rates of population growth. This occurs as death rates fall relatively quickly due to improvements in disease control, public health, sanitation, and nutrition. However, the birth rate remains high initially because social norms and reproductive behaviours (developed during high mortality periods) are slow to change. This leads to a significant gap between birth and death rates, resulting in a "population explosion".
3. Stage 3 (Developed Society): Characterised by low population growth again. Both the death rate and the birth rate have been reduced considerably. Birth rates decline as societies become more prosperous, educated, and aware, leading families to prefer smaller sizes. The difference between the now low birth and death rates is small.

Western Europe underwent this transition in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Many less developed countries are currently in the transitional stage (Stage 2). India is still in this phase; while the mortality rate has decreased significantly, the birth rate has not fallen to the same extent, although it is declining.

Common Concepts And Indicators

Demographic concepts are often expressed as rates or ratios comparing two numbers, providing a standardized way to measure phenomena across different areas or times.

Key indicators include:

• Birth Rate: The number of live births per 1000 population in a specific area during a specific period (usually a year).
• Death Rate: The number of deaths per 1000 population in a specific area during a specific period.
• Rate of Natural Increase (or Growth Rate of Population): The difference between the birth rate and the death rate. When this difference is minimal, the population is considered 'stabilised' or at 'replacement level'. Some societies experience negative growth rates where fertility is below replacement levels (e.g., Japan, parts of Europe).
• Fertility Rate: The number of live births per 1000 women in the child-bearing age group (typically 15-49 years). Crude rates are averages; age-specific rates provide more detailed insights into fertility patterns across different age cohorts.
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): The number of deaths of babies before their first birthday per 1000 live births.
• Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR): The number of women who die during childbirth per 100,000 live births. High IMR and MMR are strong indicators of underdevelopment and poverty; they decline sharply with improvements in medical facilities, education, awareness, and prosperity.
• Life Expectancy: The estimated average number of years a person is expected to live, calculated based on age-specific death rates.
• Sex Ratio: The number of females per 1000 males in a given area at a specific time. Globally, historical trends show slightly more females than males, despite slightly more male babies being born. This is attributed to higher disease resistance in female infants and longer life spans for women. However, the sex ratio has been declining in some countries like China, South Korea, and significantly, India, linked to social norms favouring males and practices like neglect of girls and sex-selective abortions.
• Age Structure: The distribution of the population across different age groups. It changes as development progresses. Initially, high mortality and short life spans result in a younger population. With development, life expectancy increases, leading to a greater proportion of older people, a process known as ageing of the population.
• Dependency Ratio: Measures the proportion of the population considered dependent (children under 15 and elderly over 64, who are typically non-working) relative to the working-age population (generally 15-64 years). The formula is: $\text{Dependency Ratio} = \frac{\text{Population } (<15) + \text{Population } (>64)}{\text{Population } (15-64)}$. This is usually expressed as a percentage. A rising dependency ratio can strain the working population supporting dependents, while a falling ratio can be advantageous, potentially leading to a 'demographic dividend'.

Size And Growth Of India’s Population

India holds the position of the second most populous country globally, with a population of 1.21 billion according to the 2011 Census. Looking at historical data, India's population growth rate hasn't always been high.

Between 1901 and 1951, the average annual growth rate was modest, not exceeding 1.33%. Notably, the decade 1911-1921 even saw a negative growth rate (-0.03%), largely due to the devastating influenza epidemic of 1918-19, which caused significant mortality.

Population growth accelerated substantially after India gained independence, reaching a peak rate of 2.2% during 1961-1981. Although the annual growth rate has since decreased, it remains high compared to many other developing nations.

This pattern reflects the demographic transition in India. Chart 1 would show that before 1931, both birth and death rates were high. After this period, death rates experienced a sharp decline, while birth rates fell much more gradually, creating a widening gap that fueled population growth.

The primary reasons for the significant fall in the death rate after 1921 include better control over famines and major epidemic diseases such as plague, smallpox, cholera, and various fevers. Improvements in medical treatments, mass vaccination campaigns, and sanitation initiatives played a crucial role in reducing mortality from these causes. While diseases like malaria, tuberculosis, and diarrhoeal illnesses still exist, their impact is much less severe than historical epidemics.

Historically, famines were a significant cause of death, exacerbated by poverty, malnutrition, reliance on variable rainfall, and inadequate state response and infrastructure for distribution. As scholars like Amartya Sen have argued, famines were often caused by a 'failure of entitlements' – people's inability to access or purchase food – rather than just a lack of food production. Significant progress in Indian agriculture (especially irrigation), better transportation and communication, and stronger state relief measures have drastically reduced famine deaths, although reports of starvation persist in some backward areas. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is a recent state effort aimed at addressing hunger in rural areas.

Unlike the death rate, the birth rate has declined more slowly. This is because birth rates are deeply influenced by socio-cultural factors that change gradually. As prosperity increases, infant mortality falls, and levels of education and awareness rise, families tend to choose to have fewer children. However, this process takes time.

India exhibits considerable regional variations in fertility rates. Some states, like Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, have achieved Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) below the 'replacement level' (around 2.1 children per woman needed to replace the population over time). Kerala's TFR is also below replacement level. In contrast, states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh still have very high TFRs (e.g., Bihar 3.3, UP 3.1 in 2016). Recent data (Sample Registration System 2020) indicates India's crude birth rate was 19.5 overall, with rural areas higher (21.1) than urban (16.1). Bihar (25.5) and Uttar Pradesh (25.1) have the highest birth rates. Projections suggest these two states will account for a large proportion of India's future population increase up to 2041.

Age Structure Of The Indian Population

India has a predominantly young population, meaning a large proportion of its people are in younger age groups, and the average age is lower than in many other countries.

Changes in India's age structure over time show a decrease in the share of the population under 15 years (from 42% in 1971 to 29% in 2011). The working-age group (15-59 years) has slightly increased its share (from 53% to 63%), while the proportion of elderly people (60+ years) is small but growing (from 5% to 7%) during the same period.

Significant changes are projected in the coming decades. By 2026, the share of the 0-14 age group is expected to reduce further (to 23% from 34% in 2001), while the 60+ age group is projected to increase its share substantially (to 12% from 7% in 2001). This indicates a process of population ageing is underway in India, although from a relatively young base.

Age structure also shows significant regional variations. States like Kerala are experiencing changes that resemble those in developed countries (higher proportion of older people), while states like Uttar Pradesh still have a very large proportion of young people.

The bias towards a younger age structure is often considered an advantage for India, creating a potential for a 'demographic dividend'. This benefit arises from a temporary increase in the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years) relative to the non-working dependent population (children and elderly). The dependency ratio falls when the working-age group is proportionally larger.

However, realising this potential benefit requires specific conditions. The demographic dividend can only translate into actual economic growth and prosperity if the increasing number of working-age people are educated and employed. If they lack adequate education or cannot find jobs, they remain unproductive or even become dependents, negating the demographic advantage. The true measure is the ratio of non-workers to workers, not just age-based dependency.

India is currently in a phase where this demographic window of opportunity exists, with a falling age-based dependency ratio. However, data suggests a slowdown in job creation rates, particularly for young people, raising concerns that India might not fully exploit this temporary advantage without planned interventions to improve education and employment prospects.

The Declining Sex-Ratio In India

The sex ratio, defined as the number of females per 1000 males, is a critical indicator of gender balance within a population. Globally, the sex ratio has historically been slightly in favour of females, even though slightly more male babies are born. This is typically because female infants tend to have higher resistance to disease, and women generally live longer than men.

Alarmingly, India has shown a declining sex ratio for over a century. Starting at 972 females per 1000 males in 1901, it fell to 933 by 2001. The period from 1961 onwards was particularly concerning, with the ratio dropping significantly to a low of 927 in 1991, before a modest increase to 933 in 2001 and 943 in 2011.

Even more worrying is the drastic fall in the child sex ratio (0-6 years). While historically higher than the overall sex ratio, it has decreased sharply. From 945 in 1991, it plunged to 927 in 2001, falling below the overall sex ratio for the first time. The 2011 Census showed a further decline to 919.

Demographers and sociologists largely attribute the declining sex ratio, particularly the child sex ratio, to social factors rather than solely health issues like maternal mortality (which has been decreasing). The primary cause is believed to be the differential treatment and lower value accorded to girl children.

Specific practices contributing to this decline include:

• Severe neglect of girl babies, leading to higher mortality rates in infancy.
• Sex-selective abortions, where female foetuses are selectively terminated.
• Female infanticide, the killing of infant girls, sometimes linked to cultural or religious beliefs.

The misuse of modern medical technology, specifically the sonogram (originally for detecting foetal abnormalities), for sex determination and subsequent selective abortion of female foetuses is a significant factor. The regional patterns of low child sex ratios support this, as they are often found in economically prosperous regions, suggesting the issue is not solely due to poverty but also linked to a desire for smaller families combined with a preference for sons.

India has enacted strict laws to combat this, such as the Pre-natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act (1996, strengthened 2003), which bans sex determination tests. While laws are important, the long-term solution depends heavily on changing societal attitudes and norms that devalue daughters. Government initiatives like 'Beti-Bachao, Beti-Padhao' aim to address this social bias.

Literacy

Literacy, the ability to read and write, is fundamental for education and serves as a crucial tool for empowerment. Higher literacy rates are associated with increased awareness of opportunities, participation in the knowledge economy, better health practices, and fuller engagement in community life.

India has made significant progress in literacy levels since independence. By 2011, almost two-thirds of the population were literate. However, keeping pace with the still relatively high rate of population growth remains a challenge.

Literacy rates show considerable variations based on gender, region, and social group.

Gender disparities are notable, with female literacy consistently lower than male literacy. According to the 2011 Census, the gap was 16.3%. However, female literacy has been improving at a faster rate than male literacy, partly because it started from a much lower base.

Differences also exist among social groups. Historically disadvantaged communities like Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) generally have lower literacy rates, with female literacy rates within these groups being even lower.

Regional variations are also wide, with states like Kerala having near-universal literacy, while states like Bihar lag significantly behind.

Inequalities in literacy are particularly critical as they tend to perpetuate social and economic disadvantages across generations. Parents with low literacy levels face significant challenges in providing a good education for their children, contributing to the continuation of existing inequalities.

Rural-Urban Differences

Historically, the vast majority of India's population has resided in rural areas, and this remains true today. According to the 2011 Census, 68.8% of the population lived in rural areas, while 31.2% lived in urban areas.

However, the proportion of the urban population has been steadily increasing. From about 11% in 1901, it grew to approximately 31.2% by 2011, representing a significant shift over the century. This growth in urbanisation reflects broader global trends where the economic and social importance of rural, agriculture-based life declines relative to urban, industrial life.

While agriculture still employs a large number of people, its contribution to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has fallen significantly (to about one-sixth). Increasingly, people living in villages are taking up non-farm jobs within rural areas (like transport, business, crafts) or commuting to nearby urban centres for work.

Mass media and communication technologies have also played a role in bridging the rural-urban divide, bringing urban lifestyles and consumption patterns into villages and creating new aspirations. Rural areas are becoming more integrated into the market economy.

Urban areas act as magnets for rural populations seeking employment and better opportunities, especially as agricultural work becomes less available or viable. The decline of common property resources (like ponds, forests, and grazing lands) in villages, which previously helped sustain poor households, also pushes people towards cities. These resources have often been privatised or depleted, forcing villagers to buy goods they once obtained freely, increasing hardship when cash income is limited.

Cities also offer social advantages, particularly anonymity. This can be beneficial for socially oppressed groups like SCs and STs, potentially offering some protection from the caste-based discrimination and humiliation faced daily in villages where everyone knows their identity. Anonymity can also allow members of socially dominant rural groups to take up lower-status jobs in the city that they might avoid in their home village.

This continuous flow of rural-to-urban migration is evident in the rapid growth of urban centres, especially large metropolises. A significant portion of India's urban population resides in these large cities. While urbanisation is rapid, the infrastructure in these cities often struggles to keep pace with the influx of migrants. Despite the increasing urban focus in media and public perception, rural areas continue to hold significant political influence in India.

Population Policy In India

Recognising the crucial impact of population dynamics on national development, health, and well-being, India has had an official population policy in place for a long time. Notably, India was among the first countries globally to announce such a policy in 1952.

This policy initially took shape as the National Family Planning Programme. Its main goals were to influence population growth rates and patterns in desirable ways, primarily by reducing the growth rate through promoting birth control, improving public health, and raising awareness about population and health issues.

The programme faced a major setback during the National Emergency (1975-1976). During this period, the government implemented a forceful mass sterilisation program using coercive methods to rapidly lower the population growth rate. This involved pressuring individuals, particularly the poor and vulnerable, and even government employees, to undergo sterilisation procedures (vasectomy for men, tubectomy for women). The widespread public backlash against these coercive measures led the post-Emergency government to abandon this approach.

Following the Emergency, the program was renamed the National Family Welfare Programme, shifting away from coercion towards a broader set of socio-demographic objectives. The National Population Policy of 2000 formulated a new set of guidelines. More recently, the National Health Policy 2017 incorporated many of these goals with updated targets.

Key aspects highlighted regarding India's Demographic Transition (Box 2.4 content):

• Census data shows population growth slowing since 1991.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has significantly declined (e.g., from 3.8 in 1990 to 2.7 more recently, though these figures can vary slightly depending on the year cited).
• Despite falling TFR, India's population is projected to continue increasing for some time due to 'population momentum'. This occurs because a large proportion of the population is currently in or entering the reproductive age group, meaning even if each woman has fewer children, the sheer number of potential parents leads to continued growth.
• Decreases in both Crude Death Rate (CDR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR) over recent decades indicate India is moving towards the later stages of demographic transition.
• The decline in CBR has been steeper than the decline in CDR since the 1990s, contributing to the reduced annual population growth rate.

Important Goals from the National Health Policy 2017 related to Population (Box 2.5 content summarized):

• Increase government health expenditure as a percentage of GDP (target 2.5% by 2025).
• Increase Life Expectancy (target 70 by 2025).
• Reduce Total Fertility Rate (target 2.1 nationally and sub-nationally by 2025).
• Reduce Under Five Mortality and Maternal Mortality Rate by specific targets and dates.
• Reduce neo-natal mortality and still birth rates.
• Achieve targets related to HIV/AIDS (90:90:90 goals).
• Improve TB cure rates and work towards elimination by 2025.
• Reduce prevalence of blindness and burden of other diseases (cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, respiratory).
• Increase utilization of public health facilities.
• Improve antenatal care, skilled birth attendance, and child immunization coverage.
• Meet family planning needs.
• Improve management of hypertension and diabetes.
• Reduce tobacco use prevalence.
• Reduce stunting in under-five children.
• Ensure access to safe water and sanitation.
• Reduce occupational injury.
• Increase state health spending as a percentage of their budgets.
• Decrease catastrophic health expenditures for households.
• Ensure availability of health personnel (paramedics, doctors) and facilities, especially in high-priority districts.
• Establish electronic health information databases.

The history of India's population policy, especially the experience during the Emergency, teaches a valuable lesson: while state policies can facilitate demographic changes, outcomes related to fertility and population dynamics are ultimately shaped significantly by underlying economic, social, and cultural transformations.